Tality: an Analysis of Prospective Data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveil-

The majority of studies of the birth spacing–child survival relationship rely on retrospective data, which are vulnerable to errors that might bias results. The relationship is reassessed using prospective data on 13,502 children born in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2009. Nearly 48% were first births. Among the remainder, short preceding intervals are common: 20% of second and higher order births were delivered within 24 months of an elder sibling, including 9% with a very short preceding interval of less than 18 months. After adjustment for potential confounders, the length of the preceding birth interval is a major determinant of infant and early childhood mortality. In infancy, a preceding birth interval of less than 18 months is associated with a twofold increase in mortality risks (compared with lengthened intervals of 36 months or longer), while an interval of 18–23 months is associated with an increase of 18%. During the early childhood period, children born within 18 months of an elder sibling are more than twice as likely to die as those born after an interval of 36 months or more. Only 592 children experienced the birth of a younger sibling within 20 months; their second-year mortality was about twice as high as that of other children. These results support the findings based on retrospective data.